Toolkits to navigate complexity: How to provide holistic solutions to environmental challenges

Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals in an increasingly evolving, interconnected, and uncertain world requires the ability to navigate complexity. In ecosystems where different actors operate with different priorities and goals, it is necessary to develop innovative practices based on a deep understanding of the environment.  

To support urban transformation in Almaty, Kazakhstan, as part of the City Experiment Fund, UNDP has applied a structured methodology. We adopted a holistic mindset that incorporates different parts of the system to achieve optimal outcomes. 

1. Exploring complexity through ecosystem mobilization and deep system scale listening 

We applied systems thinking to navigate the complex value chains of urban transformation in Almaty. Social issues in Almaty involve a wide range of actors – from research institutes, businesses, civil society organizations, environmental activists, the Almaty city government, and more. The actors have different priorities and together form an interconnected system. Issues such as air pollution, population growth, and others can only be understood by looking at the entire Almaty development landscape.  

To define priority areas and key players requires deep listening to gain a bird’s eye view of stakeholders and key players in the entire system. Specifically, we looked for potential partners, sources of information, and signals of risk. 

2. Capture complexity with strategic framing  

To overcome the unpredictability and spontaneity of urban change, we set out to design a coherent narrative and mission to align the various stakeholders and distribute responsibilities. After identifying our key stakeholders and issues, we began our research grid, which mapped three types of risks and their causality, with population growth as the driver of change in Almaty that concerned us most. This systems thinking approach allowed us to identify the main causes of Almaty’s social problems and find solutions that would have the greatest impact. 

3. Portfolio scoping, design, and development 

So how can we translate our findings into scalable solutions? First, we identified a set of interconnected immediate, cascading, and systematic risks. For each set of interrelated risks, we created a targeted portfolio of solutions that included a statement of intent and desired development impact.  

We then used a portfolio approach to bridge the current situation with our vision. For each opportunity, we took an in-depth look at the current situation, the short-term outcome, the long-term results, and the gaps in achieving the vision. At the same time, we referenced existing opportunities and practices around the globe. 

Finally, each position was developed and tested – examining impact based on social, environmental, and economic value. We also used experiments to develop and illustrate the potential of the project. 

4. Accelerate change with systematic methodologies 

Among the various problems Almaty faces, we choose to focus on addressing air quality following our mapping. Air pollution has dire consequences for Almaty, both in terms of economic costs and health. Our goal for this project is to develop an accurate, real-time, and predictive air quality monitoring system that will guide decision-making by both the local community and the Almaty government.  

Identifying obstacles and resolving them in a complex ecosystem requires mapping interconnected activities to address multiple levers simultaneously. We categorized the systematic barriers and their solutions into different levels for each of our identified key stakeholders. Here is what we found: 

We discovered that the lack of reliable real-time data was the key to unravelling the sporadic, uncoordinated or fragmented actions of stakeholders. This was facilitated by a hostile environment of opposing views, which made information transparency and thus evidence-based policymaking difficult. With these insights, we set out to strengthen the analytical capabilities and gamification of the AirVision platform and a traffic data monitoring system to address air pollution at its root. 

Conclusion 

The portfolio approach has helped UNDP understand and address the complexity of environmental challenges in Almaty. It has helped the team develop actionable, accelerated, and scaled solutions that untangle complexity through multiple layers of the portfolio. 

We look forward to accelerating Almaty’s transformation with insights from our methods and sharing our practices with all colleagues working in the UN system and beyond to achieve greater impact on our most pressing challenges.